Objectifs scientifiques et projet de recherche

The aim of the project is to characterize and understand the spatial dynamics of infectious diseases, as well as their interactions. The project is based in Vietnam, a world hotspot of intense infectious diseases circulation. This country has also an important population size (93 millions) and an exceptional diversity of climates along latitudinal (8-24°N) and altitudinal (0-3,200m from east to west) axes. Vietnam is thus an ideal country to test a number of hypotheses on the spatial dynamics of infectious diseases, including (I) demographic drivers, (II) network connections, (III) climatic forcing and (IV) diseases interactions. Another notable asset of Vietnam is the existence of extensive epidemiological surveillance data for 20 infectious diseases or syndromes, with precise spatial (at province -- ca 5,000 km2 -- or district -- ca 400 km2 -- levels) and temporal (month or week) resolution, over a long time range (5 to 20 years depending on the resolutions and the diseases). A first part of the project consists in digitizing the historical data that still exist only on paper forms and organize them into an electronic database. The main core of the research project will involve the development of mathematical and computational models to analyze these data. These data-oriented models will be used to understand the underlying mechanisms of the spatial dynamics of infectious diseases (basic research aspect) and to design optimal infectious diseases control policies (practical application in public health).

Unités IRD impliquées

2R22400 : MIVEGEC

3W20900 : UMMISCO

Institutions membres

OUCRU : Oxford University Clinical Research Unit

NIHE : National Institute of Hygiene and Epidemiology

Responsable(s)

M. x

Thématiques de recherche

More specifically, the scientific investigation will involve 4 main tasks: 1 - Characterizing the spatial dynamics of infectious diseases using signal processing statistical tools such as wavelet decomposition and putting this analysis in the context of the metapopulation theory ; 2 - Understanding the mechanisms responsible for the spatial dynamics using a statistical (Granger causality) and a mathematical (gravity model) approaches ; 3 - Exploring potential diseases interactions in JEAI program – Application form 2015 3 space. Temporal interactions between infectious diseases have been recently proved both theoretically and on real data but their potential spatial interactions have never been documented on real data ; 4 - Designing optimal disease control policies based on the models developed in the previous tasks and calibrated to data. This task will make use of the most recent optimization algorithms developed in artificial intelligence (machine learning), which have never been applied to epidemiology yet. The development of this research project will provide the opportunity to develop new competences (through training) for the National Institute of Hygiene and Epidemiology (NIHE) in the mathematical and computational modeling of infectious diseases. Acquiring such an expertise is a high priority for NIHE. Furthermore, the fact that NIHE is in Vietnam the national reference institute for the management of infectious diseases ensures that outcomes of this research project will find their way into policies. Finally, it will reinforce collaborations between NIHE, IRD and Oxford University in Vietnam. Unités IRD